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Oct 18, 2026
United StatesRussiaUkraine

Trump Waives Graham Act Sanctions on Russia for 60-Day Review

Days before new restrictions worth up to 500% tariffs were to take effect, Trump invoked a legal waiver to pause sanctions and draw bipartisan outrage.

What happened

President Trump signed an executive order Friday waiving sweeping sanctions and tariffs under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which he signed into law on September 18. The new measures were set to take effect October 18 and included 500% tariffs on Russian goods and 100% tariffs on the world's largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, including China and India. Trump invoked Section 115 of the law, which authorizes the president to waive sanctions if he certifies to Congress that doing so serves U.S. national interest.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the waiver would last 60 days while officials analyze the impact on global energy prices. The administration justified the move by citing the need to address diesel shortages resulting from the U.S. war with Iran and global supply disruptions. Trump earlier announced a separate deal with Putin allowing Russia to export hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel to global markets. Trump said in an executive order that the waiver was in national interests but did not elaborate.

The action drew immediate bipartisan backlash. Republican Senators Thom Tillis and John Cornyn called the decision "beyond irresponsible" and noted that the late Sen. Lindsey Graham—for whom the sanctions law was posthumously named—"would be appalled." Democrats including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who co-authored the legislation, condemned the move as a betrayal of Ukraine. Even Sen. Darline Graham, Lindsey's sister, disagreed with the president.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the waiver "wrong" and warned it would reward Putin financially and encourage further attacks on Ukraine. He expressed fear that additional sanctions relief would follow. Russian officials hailed the waiver as a historic moment.

Legal analysts noted that Congress explicitly authorized Section 115 waivers with no expiration date and no review procedure, meaning reversal would require new legislation and a two-thirds veto override, which the Graham Act's 262–159 House vote fell short of. The certification and report Trump submitted to Congress remain largely unexplained publicly.

Chanakya's Move

Whose move this was, what they're betting on, what could counter it.

Trump's move is a calculated choice to subordinate congressional Ukraine policy to his own near-term political calculus (energy prices before midterms) and negotiating strategy with Putin. By waiving the Graham Act just 28 days after signing it, Trump signals to Moscow that congressional pressure is performative—he holds the real power through executive authority. He is betting that energy price relief heading into November will shield him from voter backlash more effectively than bipartisan congressional anger will constrain him. The legal mechanism matters: Congress wrote Section 115 precisely to give presidents an escape hatch, likely at Trump's own insistence during negotiations over the bill. Tillis, Cornyn, and other Republicans are signaling red lines, but they have no procedural tool to reverse the waiver short of new legislation and a supermajority, which they lack. Putin wins twice: he gets his sanctions relief and proof that congressional pushback cannot stick. Zelenskyy loses leverage. The counter would be if Congress moves quickly to amend the law to strip Section 115 authority, or if Trump faces electoral damage sufficient to change his calculus—but neither is assured.

How could this affect you

Traced by who's actually in the path of this — not everyone is.
Likely
Energy markets and fuel importers
Removal of 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers and suspension of tariffs on Russian petroleum products could lower global diesel prices ahead of midterm elections by allowing Russian exports without penalty, benefiting Trump politically but extending the financial lifeline Moscow uses to fund its war.
Likely
Ukraine and NATO allies
Loss of the 60+ days of economic pressure from the Graham Act sanctions removes a concrete tool Zelenskyy cited for pressuring Russia toward negotiation. If Trump follows through with additional waivers after the review period, Ukraine's negotiating position weakens further.
Possible
U.S. exporters to China and India
Removal of threatened 100% tariffs on major Russian oil buyers eliminates retaliatory pressure on China and India that could have flowed back to U.S. firms. This could reduce risk of reciprocal tariffs on American goods in those markets.
Possible
Congress and future legislative power
This waiver establishes a precedent that Congress-approved sanctions can be set aside with minimal procedural safeguard under Section 115, potentially weakening future congressional leverage on foreign policy when presidents invoke national-interest waivers with broad certification authority.

Sources

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