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Melania-brokered ceasefire ends; Ukraine and Russia resume strikes
As a six-day humanitarian pause in Kherson expired, both sides escalated attacks on energy and military targets, defying US calls for restraint.
What happened
A humanitarian ceasefire in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky, brokered by First Lady Melania Trump, expired on November 1 after six days. The pause, which began October 27, had allowed civilians to evacuate and receive aid; Ukraine's military evacuated hundreds of people in the final days. With the ceasefire's end, combat resumed immediately across the front line and in long-range strikes.
Russia launched intense overnight attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure across four regions, leaving hundreds of thousands without electricity. President Zelenskyy said Russian forces struck with 433 drones, exploiting Ukraine's shortage of air-defense interceptors. Ukraine responded by striking the Kamensky Plant in Russia's Rostov region, a facility involved in missile production, and hitting air-defense systems valued at approximately $70 million.
The strikes resumed despite weeks of pressure from President Trump, who had asked Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, blaming them for raising diesel prices ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections. Wall Street Journal reporting suggested Ukraine had quietly paused refinery strikes in mid-October, but Zelenskyy denied any standing order and Ukraine has now resumed attacks. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told state media that Ukrainian strikes on refineries were destabilizing global fuel markets.
Chanakya's Move
Ukraine's move is a strategic gamble: by resuming refinery strikes immediately after the ceasefire ends, Kyiv signals that it will not subordinate military logic to US domestic politics. Zelenskyy framed the pause as voluntary and tactical, not a formal order—preserving operational discretion while acknowledging US concerns. The timing, on the eve of US midterms, also tests whether Trump will follow through on threats to reduce aid or whether US support for Ukraine is now de-coupled from these tactical decisions. Russia, by launching massive energy strikes and portraying Ukraine as defiant, aims to reinforce the Trump administration's frustration with Kyiv and strengthen arguments for a ceasefire favorable to Moscow. The real gamble is whether Ukraine's refusal to be pressured on targeting decisions will prompt Trump to shift his leverage toward forcing Ukraine into a negotiated settlement—a reversal that could matter more than any individual attack.