Photo via thehill.com
Israeli election ends in deadlock with Eisenkot bloc short of majority
Gadi Eisenkot's opposition alliance won 48 seats to Netanyahu's 53, neither reaching the 61 needed to govern, leaving coalition negotiations uncertain.
What happened
Israel's October 27 election delivered no clear winner. With approximately 90 percent of votes counted as of October 28, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc held 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party and allied factions secured 48 seats. Arab-majority parties won a record-high 19 seats. Neither bloc reached the 61 votes required to form a government, creating a political impasse.
Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff who served from 2015 to 2019 under Netanyahu, founded the centrist Yashar party in September 2025. His campaign centered on government accountability and military service reform, with pledges to investigate October 7 security failures and to end blanket conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews. The 66-year-old is the son of Moroccan immigrants and the first person of Mizrahi background to have served as IDF chief of staff. His son was killed in the Gaza war.
Despite the opposition bloc's mathematical ability to form a 66-seat coalition by including Arab parties, both Eisenkot and Netanyahu have rejected formal partnership with Arab-led lists. Eisenkot has set conditions including recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as a terrorist organization. Two other opposition allies—Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett—have also ruled out working with Arab parties altogether. Netanyahu characterized a government relying on Arab support as "a shame and a disgrace."
Under Israeli law, the president will give the candidate with the best chance to form a majority four to six weeks to negotiate a coalition. Current tallies suggest that mandate would initially go to Eisenkot, though his path to 61 seats remains uncertain. Political observers warn that the country could face further deadlock or additional elections if coalition negotiations fail. An estimated 730,000 voters cast ballots for Arab parties, giving them the strongest parliamentary showing in Israeli history, yet their role in forming the next government remains in question.
Chanakya's Move
Eisenkot's move is to position himself as the change agent and accountability candidate, leveraging the October 7 security failures and public fatigue with Netanyahu's political entanglement (he faces trial in March). By raising the prospect of a state commission of inquiry and mandatory conscription reform, Eisenkot signals a reset on governance. However, he is betting that centrist and left-wing parties will coalesce around ousting Netanyahu despite deep divisions on Arab inclusion—a gamble that could fail if Lieberman or Bennett refuse to budge, or if Arab parties' historic high of 19 seats proves to be a political dead-end due to ideological vetoes. Netanyahu's counter-move is to consolidate his religious and right-wing allies and use negotiation delays to his advantage, betting that political gridlock will either force Eisenkot to compromise his principles (accepting Arab support) or trigger another election, each outcome weakening the opposition. The decisive variable is whether Lieberman or Bennett—or enough members of Eisenkot's own coalition—will relent on the Arab party question. If not, Israel faces a third election cycle in rapid succession.