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Iran Threatens to Block 'Illegal' Strait of Hormuz Routes as US Claims Control Recovered
IRGC adviser says unauthorized passages used by oil smugglers will soon be closed, contradicting US assertion that regional oil flows have returned to pre-war levels.
What happened
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Wednesday it will soon block what it deems illegal transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz, specifically referring to unauthorized passages in rocky sections of the waterway. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an adviser to the IRGC commander-in-chief, told the semi-official Fars News Agency that small boats have been using these routes to smuggle oil and transfer it to tankers. He claimed the volume of illicit oil movement is negligible and does not indicate the strategic waterway is truly open to commercial traffic.
Naqdi's statement came on the same day that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Iran had "lost complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz, citing recovery of oil flows to near pre-war levels. Data from maritime tracking firm Kpler showed crude exports from the region averaging 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, with exports exceeding pre-war volumes on multiple days in September. Rubio argued this recovery demonstrated the failure of Iran's efforts to assert sovereignty over the waterway.
The competing claims reflect the escalating contest over the Strait since the US-Israel war against Iran began on February 28, 2026. Iran has sought to enforce restrictions on shipping and route vessels through its territorial waters, while the US maintains a counter-blockade on Iranian ports and provides naval escort for commercial vessels. Though a conditional ceasefire was agreed in April, tensions have remained high, with Iran resuming attacks on shipping in July and the US reinstituting its blockade.
Naqdi reiterated Iran's position that it maintains "full control" over the Strait and that this situation will continue until Iran's "legitimate demands" are met. The routes Iran plans to block were allegedly created through blasting that damaged rocky passages in the waterway. The statement appears designed to challenge narratives of regional economic recovery while asserting continued Iranian leverage over one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Chanakya's Move
Naqdi's move is tactical messaging in a stalled negotiation. The IRGC is signaling it retains enforcement capacity and can raise costs of shipping even if it cannot fully close the Strait. By claiming these routes are "illegal" and newly created, Iran frames their blockade as border defense, not aggressive closure. Simultaneously, the announcement contradicts US claims of victory—Rubio's declaration of lost Iranian control invites Iran to demonstrate otherwise. The US counter-move is to cite recovery data proving commerce flows despite Iranian efforts. The underlying play: Iran believes it can extract concessions (lifting blockade, sanctions relief, nuclear talks) by demonstrating it can still inflict economic pain; the US believes demonstrated recovery weakens Iran's leverage and gives it room to maintain pressure. The story will likely harden in the coming weeks based on whether Iran actually attempts to block routes or whether the announcement serves as a negotiating signal only.