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Germany Faces Winter With Lowest Gas Storage in 15 Years
At 57 percent capacity, Germany's underground reserves are dangerously thin heading into heating season. The government says supply is secure; energy executives warn a bitter winter could create shortages.
Germany entered late September 2026 with gas storage at approximately 57 percent of working capacity—roughly 141 terawatt-hours—marking the lowest September reading in 15 to 20 years of comparable records. Last year at the same point, storage stood near 71 to 76 percent, and the European Union average is 68 to 70 percent. The shortfall reflects a single cause: global gas prices spiked after disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026, making it uneconomical for traders to refill German storage through the spring and summer months. Germany's Federal Network Agency insists security of supply remains guaranteed, noting that abundant liquefied natural gas is available on global markets. Most industry contractholders say they will receive agreed winter quantities. The government is now planning to sharply expand a subsidy tender program to encourage traders to maintain larger gas stocks—an expansion worth roughly 5 billion cubic meters, enough to fill about 20 percent of total storage capacity. Energy executives and storage industry groups offer a more conditional assessment. RWE chief Markus Krebber stated Germany could manage a normal winter at current levels, but "a repeat of 2010 weather would not" suffice. Modeling by INES, the storage industry association, indicates that 77 percent fill by November 1 is the minimum required to guarantee supply through a normal winter. A deeply cold January, a delayed LNG cargo, or pipeline disruption during peak demand could force rationing and cost spikes. The tighter margin also raises power sector risks. When winter anticyclones cut wind and solar output, gas plants must carry more electricity load. If gas is scarce and firm capacity is delayed, wholesale prices could spike, forcing industrial curtailments. Wholesale gas prices have already moved from mid-40s euros per megawatt-hour earlier in 2026 to 80 euros in recent weeks. Germany diversified away from Russian pipeline gas after 2022, building LNG terminals and securing supplies from Norway, the United States, and emerging sources. But the current storage deficit—the sharp gap between Germany and EU averages—signals that even a diversified import portfolio cannot buffer against the speed and magnitude of geopolitical shocks to global commodity markets.