Photo via hindustantimes.com
Canada Launches Largest Trade Mission to India in 30 Years Amid Lingering Security Concerns
A 300-member Canadian business delegation heads to India this week to accelerate CEPA negotiations and deepen trade ties—even as Canada's intelligence agency identifies India as a major source of foreign interference.
What happened
Canada's Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu will lead nearly 300 business delegates to Mumbai and Bengaluru from October 12 to 17, marking Canada's largest trade mission to India in over three decades. The delegation aims to expand commercial ties across sectors including aerospace, clean technology, agri-food, and critical minerals, while advancing negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). Both countries are targeting a bilateral trade increase from the current $30.4 billion to $70 billion annually by 2030.
The mission reflects Canada's strategic shift to reduce reliance on US markets amid escalating trade tensions and tariffs. Trade diversification has become a stated policy priority, with non-US exports surging 11.1% in 2025 while US-bound exports fell 3.7%. India represents a fast-growing market and a key source of strategic minerals, clean energy technology, and agricultural imports for Canada's economy.
However, the delegation's arrival coincides with a newly released Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) assessment identifying India as the second-most pervasive state actor involved in foreign interference in Canada, after China. The report highlights concerns about influence operations targeting political and social affairs, as well as transnational repression of Sikh diaspora communities. This follows years of diplomatic tension stemming from Canadian allegations—disputed by India—of Indian involvement in the 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.
Relations have recovered since Prime Minister Mark Carney took office in 2025, initiating what officials describe as a "reset." Carney visited India in February-March 2026, and both countries recommitted to CEPA negotiations and diplomatic engagement. Yet the CSIS report signals that underlying security concerns persist even as the two governments pursue deepened economic integration. Both sides will need to manage this tension—leveraging trade opportunity while addressing intelligence assessments of state-directed interference—as CEPA negotiations intensify toward a year-end deadline.
Chanakya's Move
Canada is betting on two adjacent moves: that the economic upside of India integration outweighs active security concerns, and that economic interdependence itself could reduce India's incentive for interference activities in Canada. The strategy mirrors a broader shift toward Asia as PM Carney distances himself from Trudeau-era confrontational rhetoric on the Nijjar case—signaling a pragmatic acceptance of coexistence with states Canada identifies as security threats, provided economic benefits materialize. India, meanwhile, is reinforcing its pivot away from Western allies amid US trade restrictions and can use the CEPA negotiations to signal to its own diaspora that it retains influence in Canada despite official Canadian censure. The counterplay: if CSIS assessments of Indian interference prove accurate and operationally consequential, the trade gains could be offset by political cost when (not if) new allegations surface.