The United States completed its final military exit from Iraq on September 30, ending Operation Inherent Resolve and transitioning to bilateral security ties—but leaving power vacuums that could benefit Iran and allow ISIS remnants to reconstitute.
The U.S. military formally concluded its anti-ISIS operations in Iraq on Wednesday, with the last American and coalition forces departing from Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq's Kurdish region. The withdrawal, agreed to in 2024 under President Joe Biden and executed by the Trump administration, completes a 12-year campaign launched in 2014 after ISIS seized large areas of Iraqi territory. Pentagon officials said the exit marked the successful defeat of ISIS as an organized military threat and a shift to Iraqi-led security efforts supported by bilateral military relationships rather than the multinational coalition framework.
The withdrawal occurs against a backdrop of unfinished strategic work. The Iraqi government had initially tied the September 30 deadline to disarming non-state armed groups operating outside state control, but few Iran-backed militias complied; Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi pushed the militia disarmament deadline to June 2027. Meanwhile, Iraqi security officials reported that ISIS sleeper cells have shown increased activity since the withdrawal announcement, with some groups preparing suspected suicide attacks to exploit the security transition. Kurdish regional authorities have expressed anxiety about the loss of U.S. air defense support.
The exit fundamentally shifts Iraq's strategic position. Iran-aligned groups have celebrated the withdrawal as a geopolitical victory, seeing it as removal of a military counterweight to Tehran's regional influence. Iraqi security analysts warn that the departure could enable both Iranian expansion and ISIS resurgence. Some Sunni-majority areas and Kurdish officials fear Baghdad lacks the capacity to secure Iraq independently, particularly against a reconstituting ISIS or without restraint on Iranian-backed militia activity.
How could this affect you
Traced by who's actually in the path of this — not everyone is.
Likely
If you are a U.S. investor with exposure to Middle East energy markets or regional stability funds
Loss of U.S. military presence removes a counterweight to Iranian influence over Iraqi oil policy and security. If Iran-backed groups consolidate control or ISIS resurges, production disruptions and regional conflict could increase oil price volatility and risk premiums on regional assets.
Likely
If you live in or have family in Kurdish-majority regions of Iraq or neighboring areas
Withdrawal removes U.S. air defense capabilities the Kurds relied on for protection against Turkish airstrikes and Iranian drone attacks. Without that deterrent, cross-border military operations could intensify, raising civilian casualty risk and displacement.
Possible
If you track counterterrorism or defense contracting
ISIS sleeper cells have shown increased activity in anticipation of the withdrawal and reduced U.S. counterintelligence presence. Resurgence could trigger new counterterrorism commitments, shifting contract demand toward bilateral training and intelligence-sharing partnerships rather than direct U.S. military operations.
Possible
If you work in humanitarian aid or refugee services in the Middle East
Power vacuums and militia conflicts over Baghdad's weakness could trigger new cycles of displacement and violence. Humanitarian access could deteriorate if militia activity or ISIS attacks destabilize border regions and supply routes.
Sources
Every claim here traces back to reporting you can read yourself.
