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Trump approval hits record low 31% ahead of midterms
A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump's approval at an all-time low with Democrats leading by 12 points in generic congressional ballots as gas prices weigh on midterm voters.
What happened
President Trump's approval rating fell to 31 percent according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday, marking his lowest level across both presidential terms. The same survey found Democrats leading Republicans by 12 points on generic congressional ballots (47% to 35%), the widest Democratic advantage of the current election cycle. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, with control of the House and Senate at stake.
Economic anxiety, particularly elevated gasoline prices, is driving the decline. Multiple polls show roughly 7 in 10 Americans view gas as unaffordable, and 68 percent disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy—including 37 percent of self-identified Republicans. The economic deterioration has worsened since the launch of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran in February, which triggered a surge in energy prices.
Demographic cracks are visible within Trump's coalition. Women favor Democrats over Republicans 50 percent to 32 percent, a significant shift. Some 50 percent of female voters said they would vote Democratic compared to 32 percent for Republicans, while men also favored Democrats but by a smaller margin. Republican support among independents and college-educated voters has also eroded.
Polls from multiple firms paint a consistent picture: a Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos survey released the same day recorded Trump at 33 percent approval. Trump's approval has fallen 16 points from the 47 percent rating he held at his inauguration in January 2025, when he promised to tame inflation and end foreign wars.
Chanakya's Move
Trump's collapse in approval is a referendum on a core promise: ending inflation and foreign wars. The Iran campaign—launched February 28, 2026—achieved the opposite of his intended message. Gas prices spiked, household economics deteriorated, and the war has no visible end state. This is not a partisan messaging problem but a material facts problem: gas really is expensive, voters really do blame him, and Republicans really are defecting on the economy. The strategic vulnerability for Trump is that the midterms are still 15 days away. If energy prices decline or stabilize before November 3, the trajectory could shift. But Republicans facing these numbers now face a choice: defend the Iran campaign or distance from it. Either way, control of Congress appears to be sliding toward Democrats. Trump's counter-move would require either rapid de-escalation in Iran (signaling failure) or a dramatic economic shock that resets voter sentiment entirely.