The Devil's Excrement Comes Full Circle: How Oil Shaped Venezuela's Ruin, and Now the US Intervention
Fifty years after an OPEC founder warned that oil would destroy Venezuela, the country's recovery under US military intervention raises a familiar question: will American control solve or repeat the resource curse?
In 1975, Venezuelan oil minister Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo—a founder of OPEC—declared that oil would bring his country ruin. 'The devil's excrement,' he called it. He was prescient. Venezuela sat atop the world's largest proven oil reserves, yet by 2021, poverty affected 94% of its population. GDP had collapsed by 80% from 2013 levels; millions fled; hyperinflation reached 1.37 million percent in 2018. The curse came through predictable pathways: oil revenues financed socialist spending under Chávez, then sustained a kleptocratic regime under Maduro that chose to pay creditors over importing food.
On January 3, 2026, US forces captured Maduro and his wife in Caracas. His successor, acting president Delcy Rodríguez—drawn from the inner circle of the Chavista movement, not the opposition—quickly reopened oil channels. The Trump administration issued licenses allowing Western firms like Chevron, Shell, and Repsol to resume operations. Production rebounded from roughly 800,000 barrels per day to over 1.1 million by mid-2026. Oil revenues are projected to reach $22.1 billion in 2026, the highest since 2018.
But the recovery masks deepening dependence. Revenue from Venezuelan crude sales flows into US Treasury accounts; neither side discloses how much reaches Caracas. US imports from Venezuela totaled $4.7 billion in the second quarter alone. Meanwhile, analysts estimate that returning production to 1.5 million barrels per day would require $10–15 billion in investment and five to seven years of stable governance—a bet few major oil companies are yet making.
The arc raises a question Pérez Alfonzo could not have foreseen: can American military intervention and resource control break Venezuela's oil curse, or merely change its keeper? Early signals are mixed. The US is explicitly directing oil sales and proceeds to limit the role of adversaries. Yet the institutional wreckage runs deep—inflation still at 612%, economic output still 80% below 2013 levels—and the post-Maduro government retains significant Chavista figures. If oil money flows to Washington while Venezuela's rebuilding bills mount, the curse may simply wear a different uniform.
How could this affect you
Traced by who's actually in the path of this — not everyone is.
Likely
If you're an international oil company considering entry to Venezuela
Structural instability and unclear revenue distribution through US Treasury accounts could reduce returns on long-cycle capital investment; regulatory environment remains murky despite production recovery and Maduro's removal.
Likely
If you're a Venezuelan dependent on government services and reconstruction
Oil revenues funneled through US-controlled accounts could limit the acting government's fiscal capacity to invest in health, education, and infrastructure if US authorities retain discretionary control over disbursements.
Possible
If you're monitoring global oil markets and energy security
Venezuelan production recovery of 300,000–400,000 barrels per day could moderate global prices by approximately 3–5% in an oversupplied market, though geopolitical risk (US-Venezuela relations, Iran tensions) creates upside volatility.
Sources
Every claim here traces back to reporting you can read yourself.
