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Caught between war and deportations, Afghanistan's merchants and migrants face crisis

The U.S.-Iran conflict has choked off Afghan trade routes and triggered mass returns, while border closures with Pakistan leave the economy caught between two collapsing corridors.

When the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February 2026, Afghanistan lost access to what had become its economic lifeline. Pakistan's border with Afghanistan had been closed since late 2025 over escalating tensions, forcing Afghan traders to shift cargo westward through Iran's ports. Now that route is breaking apart. U.S. military strikes in July damaged Chabahar Port's vessel traffic control tower, and trade through Iranian territory faces constant disruption from wartime logistics and an active U.S. blockade. The Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce reported that loading at Chabahar "has stopped" and "[e]verything is on hold." Trade with Iran, which had grown to $1.6 billion in the first six months of 2026—higher than the $1.1 billion exchanged with Pakistan—has effectively been cut off. Meanwhile, Afghan merchants report that prices for food commodities formerly imported from Iran in large quantities have surged, straining an economy already fragile after years of conflict. The crisis extends beyond commerce. Millions of Afghans who worked in Iran, already facing deportation pressure from Iranian authorities before the war, have now accelerated their flight. Over 600,000 Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan in the first four months of 2026 alone. The U.N. estimates 1.7 million more will return from Iran in the coming months, putting severe strain on Afghan communities that lack jobs, housing, and social safety nets. These returnees—many of whom spent decades abroad—arrive with weak ties to their home communities and little to reintegrate into. The Taliban administration is negotiating with Iran to ease transit restrictions, but the underlying fact remains: Afghanistan is physically squeezed by wars on both borders, with Central Asian routes emerging as a partial alternative but unable to absorb the full flow of trade.